Solving Global 0.5% S Bunker Conundrum

All you hear these days, is the IMO 2020 Global Sulfur Cap and crude price volatility. What  is the current state of affairs?

•     Hardly anybody Is doing anything about it, publicly

•     Refiners are sensitive to crude volatility, and so far resisting  “tooth-and-nail”   changing their crude diet or reconfiguring their processes to make 0.5% S

•     Some vessel owners are making Inquiries regarding scrubbers prices and delivery times

•     Blenders are studying reformulation of recipes assuming certain blendstock properties

o    Blended fuel compatibility and catfines issues will be on the rise due to increased use of cracked stocks, and will get worse

•     LNG is dead for another 10 to 20 years, killed by low crude prices, lack of infrastructure, and safety engineering issues

•     Everybody assumes prices will go up, no matter what

You have 5 realistic alternatives to the run-of-the-mill IFO.380 with 3.5% S:

•     Use scrubbers; this will cost you about US $ 5 millions to install   on each ship, but will pay for itself in a matter of months for a large (e.g. Panamax) vessel

•     Use Marine Gasoil; this will cost you an additional $200/MT over IF0380,  and you can ask Germany's Ms. Merkel to bail you out before applying to a bankruptcy court

•    You can use an ECA fuel (a "trans-gender'' fuel, not bunker, not gasoil) at a premium of about $100+/MT over IF0380 price

•     You can use specially formulated "hybrid" 0.5% IFO380 by using desulfurized residuals or very low Sulfur crudes to make the low Sulfur residue to prepare IF0380, at a premium of about $20 to 100/MT over IF0380, depending on your crude choice and availability

•    You can ignore IMO and continue burning cheap IFO380 w 3.5% S on the open seas. The risk of IMO "Sulfur Police" to catch you: the probability of that outside EU and USA: zero

Happy 2020 Bunkering!